Each ingredient has 4 effects, which must be "discovered.".Skyrim has ingredients which are combined into potions. ![]() ![]() If you haven't played Skyrim, these are the rules (R) for the alchemy mini-game: I'm a physicist by training, and my stat education was all based on error propagation and curve fitting. The way I was looking at the problem is that it is a combination of the Birthday paradox and a binomial trial, but I'm having trouble mixing the two concepts, because 1) it's hard 2) I never took a proper stat class. I am trying to create a metric to sort alchemy ingredients by in Skyrim, I wanted to sort the ingredients by "probability of yielding a potion with the number of ingredients I have".
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